Relegation Looms for United: A Stark Reality Check
For Manchester United, the spectre of relegation—whether this season or next—feels less like an inevitability. A combination of poor form, managerial instability, financial mis-management, and looming PSR penalties paints a grim picture for the club’s future.
Current Season: Declining Form and Tough Fixtures
United’s meadiocre start to the season, with 15 points from the first 11 games, has given way to a dramatic collapse. Since the appointment of the new manager, the team has managed just 11 points in 11 matches. Recent form is even more troubling, with only 4 points from the last 6 games.
Worryingly, United’s early points tally was built on shaky foundations. Wins against City and Southampton, and a draw against Liverpool, were fortunate, leaving the club heavily reliant on Amad Diallo’s contributions. Without him, their position could already be dire—potentially as low as 4 points from 11 games (or 0 points from the last 6 matches).
Many United fans question how the team can play so well against City, Liverpool and then Arsenal, yet fail to turn up against lesser teams? The answer is much simpler as those statistics above suggest, United are simply terrible. Yet like a lot of terrible teams they are cpaable of raising their game for local derbys and big FA Cup matches, upsetting the odds. When looked at from this perspective, the level of Manchester United becomes clear. They are simply rubbish.
Looking ahead, the fixture list offers little respite. A challenging trip to Fulham is followed by five matches against relegation rivals. These games are critical: failure to secure 30 points from this stretch would leave United firmly in the relegation zone as they head into a daunting run of nine fixtures against tougher opponents. Wolves, the only winnable match on current form, offers little solace.
If United fail to get to 30 points in these five matches then it is safe to say they are truly awful, and probably deserve to go down. However, I feel they will succeed and secure their Premier League status during these matches, as they always seem to get a little luck when needed.
Managerial Instability: A Self-Inflicted Crisis
United’s decision to sack Erik ten Hag and appoint Ruben Amorim mid-season has destabilized the club further. The board’s reluctance to hire Amorim in the summer, citing concerns about his style of play not suiting the squad, makes this shift baffling. Instead, they invested heavily in players suited to Ten Hag’s system.
Now, Amorim is tasked with implementing his philosophy without reinforcements, and the January transfer window has yet to deliver players who fit his style. His insistence on sticking to a rigid 3-4-3 system, despite the squad’s unsuitability for it, appears to be pure folly. The club desperately needs a pragmatic managerial approach to secure the best possible results between now and the end of the season. By refusing to adapt and stubbornly clinging to his theoretical approach, Amorim is playing a risky game that could cost him his job before he has a real chance to make meaningful changes.
This chaotic approach, shifting from one manager’s vision to another’s in a single season, feels less like a rebuild and more like desperation. Instead of stabilizing the club, Amorim’s inflexibility threatens to accelerate its decline.
Finishing as high in the league as possible this season is paramount, so it is bizarre Amorim is being given the latitude to fritter away points in the way he is doing. If Amorim cared about the club’s finances and realised that he could improve the situation, surely he would adapt until the end of the season then rebuild? It seems yet more mismanagement from the top.
Financial Turmoil: A Crisis That Won’t Wait
While United’s on-pitch struggles are concerning, the financial picture is even bleaker. In recent years they have consistently lost money whilst investing heavily in the squad:
Year | Amount (LOSSES) |
2022 | £119.2m |
2023 | £25.8m |
2024 | £113.2m |
TOTAL | £258.2m |
The club’s losses totalled a staggering £258.2m. This is way over the £105m allowed under PSR, however there ar adjustments. With the standard adjustments of £75m, United’s losses for PSR assessment fell to £183m, mainly due to investment in Carrington and the Women’s team.
For some unkwown reason the Premier League allowed United two further deductions. An extra £35m was allowed for the costs involved in Jim Ratcliffe’s take over. A further £40m due to Covid-19. The latter particularly bizzare when the reasons given to justify this, were the same reasons the Premier League rejected when Everton offered the as mitigation for their breach….(one rule for United, one rule for Everton, Forest etc). Even more bizzare is the fact that United’s £40m Covid-19 concession was the highest, with the second highest club claiming just £2m?
With these further deductions of £75m, the £183m, was reduced to £108m, still over the £105m maximum, for which Machester United have recieved no punishment at all from the Premier League. United might not be so lucky when UEFA assess FFP.
We can see that the club’s losses of £113.2m last year and £25.8m the year before total £139m leaving them £34m over the Premier League’s Profitability and Sustainability Rules (PSR) limit of £105m before the current season is considered . Even with £75m in infrastructure allowances, and jimRatcliffe’s extra £35m allownce, United would still have a £29m loss. This leaves just £76m before breching the £105 limit again. So United therefore need to reduce their annual losses by £37m to comply with PSR next year.
This financial reality has already triggered drastic cost-cutting measures. Staff layoffs, the removal of complementary trips to cup finals, and reductions in charity funding are stark indicators of the club’s desperation. Even payments to Sir Alex Ferguson, a symbol of United’s glory days, have been slashed.
Yet these cuts pale in comparison to the £200m spent on Ten Hag’s squad last the summer, the costs of sacking him, and the fees paid to Sporting Lisbon to release Amorim. Revenue has also taken a hit, with United playing in the Conference League instead of the Champions League, compounded by a likely lower league finish this season. Jim Ratcliffe has made a lot of mistakes since taking over, and it is his mis-management of the club’s finances that leaves United in such a parlous situation.
The Fire Sale That Isn’t Happening
United’s only hope of complying with PSR lies in selling their most valuable players—Rashford, Garnacho, and Mainoo. Yet none of these deals have materialized. The longer this impasse continues, the more likely United will breach PSR by a record margin.
Even if these sales were to occur, the impact on the squad would be devastating. Amorim would be forced to rebuild with cut-price players on lower wages, likely requiring United to subsidize deals. This approach mirrors the disastrous strategy employed by Leeds United in the early 2000s, which ultimately led to their financial ruin and relegation.
Mounting Debt: A Ticking Time Bomb
United’s financial woes extend beyond PSR. The club’s total losses of £258m over the last three years have significantly increased their debt, with annual interest payments rising by £20.6m for this alone. Last years loss of £113.2m will add almost £10m in costs to the business in the form of interest payments, making reducing losses this year to £37m even harder. Adding to this burden, new mortgage charges have been taken out on Old Trafford in the summer of 2024, on a dilapidated stadium that is set to be demolished? This raises serious questions about the financial viability of any redevelopment plans.
Next Season: A Bleak Outlook
United willl probably survive this season, but the challenges of next season could prove insurmountable. A lower league finish and failure to qualify for Europe will further damage the club’s finances and its ability to attract top talent. With PSR & FFP penalties looming and debt continuing to rise, United’s financial tightrope is growing thinner by the day.
Fan Betrayal
The easiest and most straight forward way for United to address this is to put prices up and assume that the fans will pay it. it appears to be the case that after Jim Ratcliffe wasting huge amounts of money this is the group he will target. He has already got rid of concessaion prices for children and old aged pensioners for the remiander of the season. He has also written to season ticket holders telling them prices are going up next season. Of course if next seasons season ticket sales are relaised before June 30th then huge price increase might offset the losses.
United have 52,000 season ticket holders, increasing the price of an average season ticket by £200 would bring in an extra £20m to help cover Jim Ratcliffe’s mistakes and wasteful expenditure. Surely this is a betrayal of the fans? They are already taken for granted with poor qulaity seating, a stadium that is falling down and vermin infested catering, they tolerate that, they’ll tolerate price rises. If they don’t there are plenty more United fans to take their place.
A Beacon of Hope: FIFA Club World Cup 2025
Their only remaining hope to sell players this financial year, is the FIFA Club World Cup in the Summer. For the competing clubs, the transfer window opens two weeks earlier and competing clubs can start buying players from mid-June, ie in this financial year, which is when United desparately need money. There are 12 big European clubs participating complemented by money bags Al HIlal from Saudi Arabia, who might all offer cut price sums for players, knowing United’s plight. With £175m for participation burning a hole in the pockets of all entrants, any competing club could offer contracts to United’s players with a view to selling them on after the tournament.
If this happens, United could get vital funds in and offload players, providing a platform for Amorim to buy the players he wants.
Relegation: The Inevitable Collapse
The harsh truth is that United are staring into the abyss. This season’s poor form, compounded by a managerial crisis and more wasted money, leaves them in a mess. Next season, the financial fallout from PSR breaches, potential UEFA FFP breaches and mounting debt, make a drop to the Championship more likely than ever.
For a club of United’s stature, relegation would be catastrophic. The financial impact alone could bankrupt the club, while the sporting consequences would tarnish its legacy. The once-mighty Manchester United is now a club on the brink, with relegation a distinct possibility.
It will be interesting (read “fun” as a City fan) to see how this all pans out, but it really is not looking good at all.