The Premier League’s Self-Destruction
At first glance, the Premier League’s ongoing investigation into Manchester City’s financial conduct under the Profitability and Sustainability Regulations (PSR) looks like an act of madness. Here we have the league’s most successful club of the last decade—a team that has captured the global imagination with its dominance—potentially facing expulsion. Why would the Premier League, a global success story, risk dismantling one of its greatest assets? But as we dig deeper, the rationale begins to take shape. This isn’t just about financial compliance or fairness. Beneath the surface, a long-term strategy driven by powerful clubs like Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham, and Manchester United starts to emerge—a strategy that could see the Premier League unwittingly aiding the very forces conspiring to leave it behind.
On the surface, targeting Manchester City seems like self-sabotage. Expelling a club that has drawn billions in revenue, attracted global stars, and raised the league’s profile seems absurd. But this is more than a punishment for City’s alleged financial misdeeds. It’s a move that, if successful, clears the way for an entirely different vision of the future—one where a select group of clubs no longer answer to the constraints of English football but instead position themselves at the helm of a European Super League. If City are the scapegoat, it becomes the perfect excuse for the likes of Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea, and Manchester United to make their exit from the Premier League appear inevitable and necessary.
The Irony of PSR and FFP: A Trap of Their Own Making
There is a delicious irony at the heart of this entire debacle. The very clubs now railing against Manchester City’s dominance—Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham, and Manchester United—were the ones who championed the introduction of Profitability and Sustainability Regulations (PSR) and UEFA’s Financial Fair Play (FFP) rules. These regulations were designed with a clear aim in mind: to limit City’s rapid ascent and protect their own positions in European football’s elite. City, backed by Abu Dhabi wealth, were an existential threat to the established order. Their rivals feared that without constraints, City’s financial power would blow them out of the water, not only in the Premier League but in the all-important race for Champions League places.
The plan was simple—PSR and FFP would ensure that clubs could only spend what they earned. Since City’s revenues were initially lower than the likes of Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester United, these rules were seen as a financial straitjacket that would slow their progress. Arsenal’s then-chief executive, Ivan Gazidis, was a vocal advocate of FFP, claiming that it would create a more level playing field. Liverpool, too, publicly backed these measures, believing they could safeguard their historical prestige from the “new money” at Manchester City.
But the irony, bordering on poetic justice, is that these protectionist regulations have ended up reinforcing City’s dominance rather than undermining it. PSR and FFP have become the super glue that locks Manchester City in place at the top of the pyramid, making it even harder for the very clubs that pushed for these rules to compete. City’s commercial growth has exploded over the past decade, with sponsorship deals and revenues soaring in line with their on-pitch success. Now, City comfortably generates the kind of income that allows them to operate within PSR and FFP constraints while still outspending their rivals.
The Trap of Their Own Design
The very mechanism designed to shackle City has, instead, boxed in their competitors. While clubs like Arsenal, Liverpool, and Tottenham are bound by the spending limits imposed by their relatively smaller revenues, Manchester City’s well-oiled financial machine continues to thrive. The irony is glaring—FFP was meant to prevent City from breaking into Europe’s elite; instead, it has entrenched them there. Arsenal and Tottenham, once regular Champions League fixtures, now find themselves battling to even qualify, as City marches forward both domestically and in Europe. Liverpool and Manchester United, both global brands with enormous fanbases, have had to play catch-up, watching City outstrip them season after season.
PSR and FFP were supposed to be the safety nets for clubs threatened by City’s rise, but they’ve turned into walls keeping them out.
In the end, the irony is clear: the clubs that once saw financial fair play as their salvation now see it as their biggest constraint. While they struggle to live within the rules they helped establish, Manchester City has learned to thrive within them. The trap they set for City has, in many ways, become their own.
Back to the PSR case…..
The Catastrophic Worst-Case Scenario: Expulsion from the Premier League
If the investigation results in Manchester City’s expulsion, the repercussions would be monumental. The Premier League would lose one of its most marketable clubs, with revenues tied to broadcasting deals, commercial partnerships, and global exposure taking a serious hit. For Manchester City, this would be a disaster. Their global stars—players like Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne—are not going to spend their prime years in the Championship. The infrastructure that made City great, from Pep Guardiola to their high-performance team, would collapse almost overnight.
City’s ability to sustain itself financially outside the top tier would be impossible. The Championship cannot provide the commercial opportunities or global exposure that City thrives on. The loss of revenue would leave the club crippled, and they would be forced to look beyond English football for salvation. But what seems like an existential crisis for Manchester City could, in reality, play directly into the hands of those orchestrating a broader shift in European football.
The European Super League’s Olive Branch
Should Manchester City be expelled, it’s almost certain that Real Madrid, Barcelona, Juventus, and the other proponents of the European Super League (ESL) would extend an olive branch. They would not only offer City an escape route from their downfall but frame the ESL as a necessary refuge for a club that has been unjustly punished. This move would shift the perception of the Super League—from a cynical power grab by Europe’s elite to a lifeline for a victimised club that has nowhere else to go.
This isn’t just a coincidence. For the clubs with American owners—Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United, and Tottenham—the ESL has always been the endgame. They have long resented the financial restrictions imposed by the Premier League’s PSR and UEFA’s Financial Fair Play (FFP) rules. The chance to create a new, closed competition where revenue is shared only among a select few would be irresistible. Expelling City would simply accelerate the timeline. Once City joins the ESL, it paves the way for the likes of Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea, and Manchester United to follow, presenting their departure as a matter of survival rather than greed.
The Unraveling of the Premier League
Even in less severe scenarios—where Manchester City is handed a points deduction or a heavy fine—the damage to the Premier League’s credibility will be profound. City’s financial clout and dominance will still loom large, and the argument from rival clubs will remain the same: how can anyone compete in a league where one club’s resources and success make a mockery of the rest?
Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea, and Manchester United would have a compelling narrative to justify their departure. They would claim that the Premier League has become untenable—that financial rules are either inconsistently enforced or circumvented entirely. These clubs don’t want to compete under a structure that binds their hands financially while allowing others to find loopholes. By joining a European Super League, they would be seeking a level playing field that the Premier League, in their eyes, no longer provides.
The Endgame: American-Owned Clubs and the Premier League’s Collapse
The true driving force behind this entire situation is the long-term vision of the American-owned clubs. These owners—backed by the massive wealth of the Glazers at Manchester United, Kroenke at Arsenal, FSG at Liverpool, and ENIC at Tottenham—are not interested in the traditions of English football. They see the Premier League as a cash cow that is approaching its peak, constrained by financial regulations and domestic rivalries that limit their global reach. The European Super League offers them a future where they can maximise profits, unburdened by PSR, FFP, or the chaotic unpredictability of relegation and promotion.
The signs are already there. Manchester United recently posted a record £180 million loss, yet their owners show no signs of concern over PSR compliance. Chelsea, under Todd Boehly’s ownership, has spent over £1 billion on players in a reckless show of force, clearly unconcerned by the Premier League’s financial rules. These clubs don’t care about PSR anymore because they know they won’t be playing by those rules much longer. Their plan is clear: destabilise the Premier League, and when the dust settles, use the collapse as a justification to leave and form a Super League.
A League in Decline
The Premier League’s self-destruction isn’t about Manchester City’s guilt or innocence—it’s about the league becoming collateral damage in a much larger game. If City are expelled, it will be the excuse that Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham, and Manchester United need to make their escape. If City stays, it will fuel claims that financial competition is rigged, further pushing these clubs towards the Super League. Either way, the Premier League is left weakened, and the American-owned clubs will walk away, leaving English football behind as they carve out a new future for themselves on the global stage.
Manchester City’s PSR case may be the catalyst, but make no mistake—this is about more than just one club. It’s about the future of football itself. The Premier League may think it’s enforcing its rules, but in reality, it is unwittingly ushering in its own downfall. And for the clubs who have long been plotting their exit, that downfall cannot come soon enough.
The result of the PSR case will be revealed towards the end of the 2024-25 season, and make no mistake this summer might be all about the first ever FIFA Club World Cup, but it may be overshadowed in England by wholesale resignations from the Premier League by Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham.