September 2025: Liverpool won the first 5 matches this season, their supporters and their sycophants alike, waxed lyrical about how Liverpool would go the whole season undefeated and do the treble. Then they lost 5 in a row.
October 2025: Arsenal their supporters and their sycophants alike, waxed lyrical about how Arsenal had the strongest squad and were going to walk the Premier League this season and do the treble.
November 2025: Arsenal get the opportunity to stretch their lead at the top. This season everytime, Arsenal get a opportunity to create an unassailble lead, they draw or lose. They do not seem to have what it takes.
The Premier League does not crown champions in September, October or even December; it anoints them in the final, unforgiving stretch, when pressure tightens and excellence must be sustained rather than flashed.
The tables below, dividing each season under Pep Guardiola into its first and last 19 matches, tell a compelling story. In every campaign shown apart from last season, the team that amassed the most points over the final 19 games went on to lift the Premier League trophy. One exception only. The rule, otherwise, is ironclad.
| Season | Champions | Top 4 First 19 | Top 4 Last 19 |
| 2016-2017 | Chelsea | 1 Chelsea 49 pts 2 Tottenham 42 pts 3 Liverpool 41 pts 4 Arsenal 40 pts | 1 Chelsea 44 pts 2 Tottenham 44 pts 3 Man City 39 pts 4 Liverpool 35 pts |
| 2017-2018 | Man City | 1 Man City 54 2 Man United 42 3 Chelsea 41 4 Liverpool 40 | 1 Man City 46 2 Man United 40 3 Tottenham 40 4 Liverpool 35 |
| 2018-2019 | Man City | 1 Liverpool 54 2 Man City 44 3 Tottenham 43 4 Chelsea 37 | 1 Man City 54 2 Liverpool 43 3 Chelsea 35 4 Tottenham 28 |
| 2019-2020 | Liverpool | 1 Liverpool 54 2 Leicester 39 3 Man City 38 4 Chelsea 32 | 1 Liverpool 44 2 Man City 43 3 Man United 36 4 Chelsea 34 |
| 2020-2021 | Man City | 1 Man United 40 2 Man City 38 3 Liverpool 37 4 Leicester 36 | 1 Man City 48 2 Man United 34 3 Chelsea 32 4 Liverpool 32 |
| 2021-2022 | Man City | 1 Liverpool 48 2 Man City 46 3 Chelsea 43 4 Arsenal 35 | 1 Man City 47 2 Tottenham 36 3 Liverpool 44 4 Chelsea 31 |
| 2022-2023 | Man City | 1 Arsenal 50 2 Man City 44 3 Man United 42 4 Newcastle 38 | 1 Man City 45 2 Arsenal 34 3 Newcastle 33 4 Man United 33 |
| 2023-2024 | Man City | 1 Liverpool 42 2 Arsenal 40 3 Aston Villa 39 4 Man City 37 | 1 Man City 54 2 Arsenal 49 3 Liverpool 40 4 Chelsea 33 |
| 2024-2025 | Liverpool | 1 Liverpool 45 2 Arsenal 39 3 Nottingham Forest 37 4 Chelsea 35 | 1 Man City 40 2 Liverpool 39 3 Arsenal 35 4 Chelsea 34 |
| 2025-2026 | ? | 1 Arsenal 45 2 Man City 41 3 Aston Villa 39 4 Liverpool 32 | 1 ? ? 2 ? ? 3 ? ? 4 ? ? |
This matters. It reframes how title races should be judged. The league is not won by those who start fastest, but by those who finish strongest. Across the seasons examined, only four of the nine teams leading or excelling over the first 19 matches have gone on to win the title, a far less reliable indicator than the run-in. By contrast, the side with the most points over the final 19 matches has almost always been crowned champion, the lone exception being Manchester City last season. With Arsenal, Manchester City and Aston Villa separated by fine margins at the halfway point this year, history insists that the destination remains undecided.
Yet history also shows that one club, under one manager, has turned the second half of the season into a craft, almost a science.
Strip away the anomalies and the pattern is stark. Aside from the 2018/19 campaign where City amassed a remarkable 100 points, Manchester City have improved their points return in the second half of every single season under Guardiola.
This is not fortune or form; it is design.
Guardiola’s genius lies in the details others miss and the work others tire of. City do not merely train; they rehearse. Tactical ideas are layered patiently, positional play refined week by week, opponents dissected with forensic precision. As the season wears on, Guardiola’s teams become more economical, more ruthless, more intelligent. The ball moves quicker, the press sharpens, the margins shrink in City’s favour. Where others cling to systems, Guardiola evolves them.
It is also a triumph of conditioning and mentality. City peak when others fray. Injuries are absorbed, rotations calculated, standards policed relentlessly. Guardiola demands obsession, and his players respond with control under pressure rather than chaos. Spring is when City’s football becomes most serene and most suffocating.
Rivals cannot point to the same certainty. Arsenal’s youthful brilliance has faltered late before. Liverpool’s great sides have surged early only to fade under attrition. Chelsea’s cycles have been dramatic but fleeting. None can claim the season-by-season guarantee of second-half acceleration that Guardiola has institutionalised at City.
Which brings the argument inevitably to the present. Arsenal are strong, cohesive and ambitious. City are in transition, recalibrating after change rather than retreating from it. On paper, this feels closer than many of Guardiola’s previous run-ins.
But memory intrudes. City have overturned deficits to this same Arsenal side twice in the last three seasons to seize the title. They have done so without panic, with authority born of repetition. And this time, the defining head-to-head fixture will be staged at the Etihad, a ground where belief drains from challengers as control tightens around them.
The data is clear. The patterns are established. The Premier League is usually won by the team that masters the last 19 matches, and Manchester City have made that mastery their signature.
With January almost complete, Arsenal have had two glorious opportunities to race into a significant lead, but failed to take advantage each time, last week’s loss to Man United has opened the title race wide again.
Given the evidence, the history and the man orchestrating it all, only a fool would bet against them doing it again.